Projecting the potential impact of COVID-19 school closures on academic achievement


Journal article


Megan Kuhfeld, James Soland, Beth Tarasawa, Angela Johnson, Erik Ruzek, Jing Liu
Educational Researcher, vol. 49, SAGE Publications Sage CA: Los Angeles, CA, 2020, pp. 549--565


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APA   Click to copy
Kuhfeld, M., Soland, J., Tarasawa, B., Johnson, A., Ruzek, E., & Liu, J. (2020). Projecting the potential impact of COVID-19 school closures on academic achievement. Educational Researcher, 49, 549–565. https://doi.org/10.3102/0013189X20965918


Chicago/Turabian   Click to copy
Kuhfeld, Megan, James Soland, Beth Tarasawa, Angela Johnson, Erik Ruzek, and Jing Liu. “Projecting the Potential Impact of COVID-19 School Closures on Academic Achievement.” Educational Researcher 49 (2020): 549–565.


MLA   Click to copy
Kuhfeld, Megan, et al. “Projecting the Potential Impact of COVID-19 School Closures on Academic Achievement.” Educational Researcher, vol. 49, SAGE Publications Sage CA: Los Angeles, CA, 2020, pp. 549–65, doi:10.3102/0013189X20965918.


BibTeX   Click to copy

@article{kuhfeld2020a,
  title = {Projecting the potential impact of COVID-19 school closures on academic achievement},
  year = {2020},
  journal = {Educational Researcher},
  pages = {549--565},
  publisher = {SAGE Publications Sage CA: Los Angeles, CA},
  volume = {49},
  doi = {10.3102/0013189X20965918},
  author = {Kuhfeld, Megan and Soland, James and Tarasawa, Beth and Johnson, Angela and Ruzek, Erik and Liu, Jing}
}

As the COVID-19 pandemic upended the 2019–2020 school year, education systems scrambled to meet the needs of students and families with little available data on how school closures may impact learning. In this study, we produced a series of projections of COVID-19-related learning loss based on (a) estimates from absenteeism literature and (b) analyses of summer learning patterns of 5 million students. Under our projections, returning students are expected to start fall 2020 with approximately 63 to 68% of the learning gains in reading and 37 to 50% of the learning gains in mathematics relative to a typical school year. However, we project that losing ground during the school closures was not universal, with the top third of students potentially making gains in reading. 


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